Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.018773 0.021314 0.024082 0.027322 0.031013 0.035089 0.039937
2025-03-09 0.014912 0.018424 0.022590 0.027907 0.034521 0.042496 0.052867
2025-03-16 0.012458 0.016292 0.021112 0.027630 0.036241 0.047265 0.062507
2025-03-23 0.011165 0.015298 0.020746 0.028477 0.039211 0.053651 0.074665
2025-03-30 0.009606 0.013696 0.019308 0.027606 0.039627 0.056505 0.082171
2025-04-06 0.008518 0.012582 0.018363 0.027233 0.040582 0.060057 0.090876
2025-04-13 0.007447 0.011356 0.017101 0.026212 0.040406 0.061847 0.097025
2025-04-20 0.007018 0.011031 0.017113 0.027068 0.043095 0.068124 0.110632
2025-04-27 0.006604 0.010675 0.017027 0.027735 0.045513 0.074154 0.124403
2025-05-04 0.006274 0.010415 0.017053 0.028562 0.048235 0.080879 0.139952
2025-05-11 0.005773 0.009823 0.016479 0.028322 0.049123 0.084603 0.150688
2025-05-18 0.005378 0.009367 0.016084 0.028337 0.050424 0.089108 0.163191
2025-05-25 0.004937 0.008802 0.015467 0.027931 0.050988 0.092452 0.174093
2025-06-01 0.004689 0.008556 0.015387 0.028479 0.053336 0.099236 0.192166
2025-06-08 0.004344 0.008101 0.014888 0.028200 0.054097 0.103125 0.205033
2025-06-15 0.004190 0.007986 0.014994 0.029065 0.057113 0.111551 0.227723
2025-06-22 0.003823 0.007432 0.014232 0.028175 0.056595 0.113025 0.236393
2025-06-29 0.003555 0.007045 0.013753 0.027795 0.057048 0.116447 0.249430
2025-07-06 0.003236 0.006530 0.012981 0.026752 0.056038 0.116774 0.255842
2025-07-13 0.003152 0.006483 0.013134 0.027626 0.059120 0.125905 0.282488
2025-07-20 0.003052 0.006394 0.013194 0.028307 0.061846 0.134517 0.308865
2025-07-27 0.002974 0.006342 0.013327 0.029152 0.065003 0.144351 0.339084
2025-08-03 0.002800 0.006074 0.012977 0.028906 0.065693 0.148740 0.356914